Arab Spring and unintended consequences

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-15149351

This article is dated 04OCT2011.

Saudi Arabia is the 7th leading country to send students to the US. The growth in Saudi international students is part of the King Abdullah's two fold push to bring Saudi Arabia into the 21st century. By sending people abroad to be educated King Abdullah is minimizing the educational influence Salafist and Wahhabis’ radicals (concepts of extreme Islam worldwide) while, hopefully, bringing new industry to Saudi Arabia in order to diversify an oil production dependent economy. Granted, it can be argued this an over simplification of a very complex cultural/progressive/economic issue however for the purpose of this blog it is sufficient.

When the "Arab Spring' emerged in Tunisia many here in America and abroad heralded this as a movement to remove a totalitarian regime. To date revolutions have occurred not only in Tunisia but also in Egypt and a civil war in Libya, resulting in the fall of its regime. There have been civil uprisings in Bahrain, Syria, and Yemen; major protests in Algeria, Iraq, Jordan, Morocco, and Oman; and minor protests in Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Saudi Arabia, Sudan, Western Sahara with clashes at the borders of Israel. Unfortunately, in the typical American short sighted manner, we have encouraged or supported the removal of these regimes without considering the unintended consequences of our actions. While Tunisia and Egypt were undoubtedly repressive regimes they were able to assist in maintaining stability in the region.

The Islamic Brotherhood has been seen as background organizers in many of these revolutions and civic movements. The Muslim Brotherhood no longer openly conducts terrorist operations; it is primarily a political organization that supports terrorism and terrorist causes. Many of its members, however, have engaged in terrorist activities and the group has spawned numerous terrorist groups, such as Hamas and Egyptian Islamic Jihad (aka al-Queda in Iraq or AQI). Furthermore, many of its members are Salafists and Wahhabis’; the same faction who the Saudi’s are trying to undermine. To complicate the issue the Iranians are taking a hand in many of these countries. Iran see’s the intervention as a means to undermine the legitimacy of the Saudi government and thereby moving Iranian influence in the region forward.

Through US support and Iranian intervention in the Arab Spring the Saudi government has been losing legitimacy at home and abroad. To assuage its population Saudi Arabia has been giving money to households to increase their popularity. Internationally they have threatened the United States with oil sanctions and promoted Palestinian sovereignty when before they may have not taken such a course of action. Other options are on the table for Saudi Arabia such as sending their international students to Europe rather than to the United States as European countries have been opening English speaking schools to attract their own international students. The Saudi government is well aware of how much they contribute to the American economy by sending their students to study in the United States.

Higher education is the 5^th largest industry in the United States and while Saudi Arabia pulling their students from the United States will be mostly a symbolic gesture given the size of the US economy those institutions who were catering to the Saudi student population will feel an increased fiscal pinch.

In the increasing global aspect of Higher Education countries, such as Saudi Arabia, may express their displeasure or apply political/economic pressure through approving or disapproving to which institutions it’s students go to in order to study abroad.